According to The Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds report released by the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Asia will have surpassed North America and Europe combined by 2030, as it relates to global power. This “power” is based upon GDP, population size, military spending — and technological investment. Barring some horrific events that fall into the report’s “Black Swans” category, China alone will have the largest economy – surpassing the U.S. a few years before 2030. Those events, including a pandemic that kills vast amounts of people, nuclear terror, or a cyber attack, would cause unforeseen changes that could alter the predictions made in the report. The report states that “a shift in the technological center of gravity from West to East and South is happening and will continue until these emerging economies leave us in the dust technologically. However, the speed of the shift will depend on the availability of risk capital and the development of laws that protect intellectual property. Trends to watch include big data, social networking, and the development of “smart cities.” Big data could be used positively in business – to improve predictive models – or negatively in politics – to control or coerce large populations. Social networks may continue their relatively benign and distracting existence – or they could be used by anarchists to steal information. And as for the previously mentioned “smart cities,” IT could be used in every area of urban management – for better, or for worse. Finally, robotics and 3D printing may change work patterns by making semi-skilled manufacturing workers “redundant.” So, basically, it would be the Information Age 2.0, where plenty of jobs could be eliminated – but, wouldn’t plenty of jobs be created, too?
China Rising
While technologists and conspiracy theorists alike could argue for the next 17 years about what will happen in 17 years, one thing from the report is crystal clear: Emerging economies, especially China, will become dominant in the technology arena. Even now, China is making strides towards dominance as it scrambles to catch its available IP addresses up to its growing population. The country has almost twice the number of Internet users as the U.S., and it is working to deploy a new protocol, Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6). This version, strongly motivated by the urgency to create room for China’s Internet users, will offer advanced security and privacy options, along with many more IP addresses, and it is evidence that the future of the Internet is already emerging in China. Many U.S. experts believe the future of computing as a whole will also be in China. Due to the availability of low-cost labor, China has already become the world’s dominant maker of computers and consumer electronics. The country’s booming economy and technological infrastructure is enabling it to branch out into many areas of technology beyond merely assembling the desktop PCs of the world. Over six decades, the U.S. has paved the way in computing, and technological innovation has been as American as apple pie and baseball. And, Silicon Valley has been the technological hub of the planet. However, today China innovates not just because it can – but because it must. China’s massive population is emerging into a whole new economic world, and its own technological innovation will be the key to enabling the future of its society.
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Will China Be the Next Silicon Valley?
